So again, what is this penchant we have in declaring huge numbers down to the last significant digit? That's a mathematical term, because in a real world context, there's nothing significant about it. In fact, with numbers that large, there isn't any significance to the last 3 digits, maybe even that last 6. Seriously, do those last 862 Bibles really mean anything to you, gentle reader? Can you wrap your mind around 178 million? I did the math. Stacking that many bibles would give you a column close to 3,000 miles high. The International space station only orbits at 220 miles. 3,000 miles of stacked bibles! And the last 862? They wouldn't even make it across your Kingdom hall parking lot.
So what is this overweening obsession with precision? According to the 2012 Yearbook, we spent 1,707,094,710 hours in field service. We could have said 'more than 1.7 billion'. That would make the point, wouldn't it? But that wouldn't be fair to those poor souls who labored to put in that last 710. Oh no! We need to record and report every hour. This assumes, of course, that all 7,394,672 of us reported every hour and quarter hour with due diligence, because if we start fudging the numbers, well that would never do. The very fabric of society would fall away. There would be chaos.
We are told that we track numbers with such precision because that is what was done in Bible times.
Really???
Let me ask you this. How many were at the meeting at Pentecost when Matthias was appointed to take the place vacated by Judas and holy spirit was first poured out on the Christian congregation—arguably one of the most important meetings of all time?
120, you say? AIHRR! Wrong!
"(the crowd of persons was all together about one hundred and twenty)" — Acts 1:15
What!? They weren't capable of counting with more precision? They had to round to the nearest ten? Surely someone had remembered to bring his pocket abacus. How many were baptized that day? About 3,000 souls! ABOUT 3,000 SOULS!? We had 262,131 baptized last year, but in the first century, they were simply content to round to the nearest thousand. Sacrilege! (Acts. 2:41)
I don't know about you, but I blame Henry Ford. Well, not just Henry. I'm sure the insurance industry has had something to do with it, what with their actuarial tables and all. Maybe we got our love of statistics from them.
I think that perhaps we have this idea that if we don't report every last hour and quarter hour, we are somehow cheating God. Maybe we should let all our statisticians in on a little secret. God can do his own math. He's actually pretty good at it. I have this from a reliable source. So there is really no need to count down to the last fraction. No need to figure out how old a child is before we can count him as a meeting attendee. (The answer, by the way, is 1 year, 7 months, 12 days, but only if he weighs more than 22 pounds.) No need to water down our Bible Studies statistics by adding in 10-minute door-step studies to the mix. The numbers don't really mean anything.
We all know what Mark Twain said about lies and statistics. If you don't, look it up. This site is rate G.
I say: Long live round numbers!
Now I'm going to have 1.257 ounces Scotch. This venting is thirsty work.
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Comment by apollos0falexandria on 2013-04-08 09:40:59
I am sorely tempted to add to the numbers fun by relaying a comment given at our hall, but it was likely unique and identifiable, so to do so might pinpoint my position down to 6 decimal places – and those would be meaningful :)
For those who I might personally know I will send you a note offline.
In the meantime whether the numbers really mean anything or not is down to individuals. They mean something to HQ. They also mean something to anyone who views increases as firm evidence of Jehvoah's blessing. We touched on this under another topic I think.
The 2013 Yearbook part at the service meeting this past week encouraged the audience to comment on “outstanding aspects of the worldwide reports” - AKA the stats.
I was already bracing myself for the inevitable misrepresentation of some of these, and sure enough the brother handling the part himself noted that several countries had experienced a 100% increase. He was very enthused about how encouraging that must have been!
Except ... NO country actually experienced a 100% increase, or even half of that. Some countries with low publisher counts squeezed into double digits. The countries which show 100% increase have been mathematically misreported. They occur because they are newly reported based on a decision to change the geographical grouping or boundaries. Check out South Sudan for a prime example. All that happened was they split the reporting of Sudan this year into “Sudan” and “South Sudan”. As a result the 2011 Publisher column for South Sudan is blank. But rather than leaving the %increase column blank also, which would be the correct way to report it accurately (since a percentage of zero is meaningless), they decided to insert 100%.
If you actually add the two territories together and compile the figures so that they are accurately reflected for the whole of Sudan as previously reported, then the percentage increase figure is ... wait for it ...
0%
(actually it's a 0.5% increase, but we don't report decimals in this column)
Fun with numbers indeed
Comment by junachin on 2013-04-08 11:26:24
This is the official justification for our preoccupation with numbers:
w05 6/1 pp. 17-18 par. 12
12 Notice what the book Organized to Do Jehovah’s Will says: “Early followers of Jesus Christ took an interest in reports of progress in the preaching work. (Mark 6:30) The Bible book of Acts tells us that there were about 120 persons present when holy spirit was poured out on the disciples at Pentecost. Soon the number of disciples grew to 3,000 and then to 5,000. . . . (Acts 1:15; 2:5-11, 41, 47; 4:4; 6:7) What fine encouragement the news of these increases must have brought to the disciples!” For the same reason, Jehovah’s Witnesses today endeavor to keep accurate records of what is accomplished worldwide [...] Such reports provide a realistic picture of what is done in the world field. They show where help is needed and which kind of literature and how much of it is required to advance the preaching work.
Yes, these rounded figures, reported many years after the fact, have inspired the modern-day organization to devote much time and resources to 'accurate record-keeping'. To me, the fact that this is the only time in the Greek Scriptures that numbers are mentioned, and that even then they are always approximate, sends the opposite message: that we shouldn't be overly concerned about numbers.
Of course, keeping such records was practically impossible in the first century, and we have no way of knowing if the early Christians would have kept more accurate records if they had been able. Keeping records, as the above paragraph states, has its benefits. But when our meetings start to sound like sales meetings and we're misapplying scripture to justify it, maybe it's time to do a cost/benefit analysis.
That's my 2.30758 cents on the subject.
Comment by Dorcas on 2013-04-08 11:39:57
Thank you for giving air to this! I have the same irritation. If anyone has seen a secretary in any congregation in action, that is, trying to get the publisher's reports for the monthy report to be turned in, it's obvious there is much guessing and "thinking" going on. From what I've observed, I believe congregational reports are not accurate. So if the individual congregation numbers are "estimates" then how can the entire organization brag about precise numbers? Another attempt by us to present the front that we are diligent to detail and honest in all things.
Reply by Meleti Vivlon on 2013-04-08 11:54:25
Then there is the whole "reporting to men the service we render to God." Why are men in the loop? And what does "counting our time" have to do with sacred service to the Most High?
We've all heard something like, "I have a call near the hall so we can all start our time before we get to the territory."
There is something intrinsically wrong with the entire arrangement. No surprise though, as it is yet another vestige of the Rutherford era with its congregation and publisher quotas.Reply by Dorcas on 2013-04-08 15:07:45
Again we are in agreement. Did you notice the pic of Rutherford's backside in the WT lesson yesterday? Enough said. At least now we don't have those big boards with our time displayed for all to see. I confess, years ago I was guilty of starting my time in town because we had much rural to cover. With age comes wisdom, I hope.
Comment by miken on 2013-04-08 16:18:57
When Jesus sent out the seventy to witness about the nearness of the kingdom and interestingly also cure the sick, (Luke 10:1,8,9,17) they returned with joy. I don't suppose anyone has any evidence that Jesus demanded to know exactly how many days and total hours they spent doing this witnessing. In the Organized To Do Jehovah's Will book page 89 the justification for reporting field service in part refers to precise figures recorded in the Hebrew scriptures ( ie Gen 46:27; Judges 7:7) and also two precise figures in the Christian Greek scriptures (sorry Meleti) John 21:11, 153 fish and Acts 19:19, 50,000 pieces of silver. However I find these scripture examples stretching interpretation too far to support mandatory field service reporting.
The emphasis on figures is demonstrated in the 2013 yearbook in the 2012 Grand Totals section pages 178-192. For the first time that I know of a page is included to keep a record of our 2013 personal Service Report which is an annual version of the monthly service report form. We also have a page for our spiritual goals for 2013.
Regarding the 1,748,697,447 total hours spent in field service I find that figure somewhat misleading. Of that number how many hours were spent in direct witnessing, communicating directly either orally or by other means? I fully accept that even if the total annual field service hours were halved the time spent by relatively few in this aspect of service to God and Christ is exceptional. However we must never think that by works alone we can gain salvation. Yes of course works do follow faith James 2:18-26. However Paul reminds us at Gal 2:15, 16 and Eph 2:8, 9 we are saved through faith in God's gift of the ransom sacrifice of his son Christ Jesus, 1Tim 2:5, 6.Reply by junachin on 2013-04-08 20:16:44
Well, the 50,000 pieces of silver were a calculation of what the books were worth, and it's almost certainly a rounded figure. It hardly counts as 'accurate record-keeping'. The 153 fish is a legitimate example of accurate record-keeping, but what on earth would that have to do with reporting service activity? You're right, that is definitely "stretching interpretation too far".
Comment by crazyguy on 2013-04-08 20:10:11
Matt. chapter 6 talks about giving to the poor 'let your left hand not know what your right is doing' does not our time in service fall into this category? I believe so because turning in time creates classes and can lead to the type of actions like the pharisees exalting themselves for all that they have done.
Comment by Hugo I. Matias on 2013-04-09 18:27:21
LOL " But that wouldn’t be fair to those poor souls who labored to put in that last 710."
I was loughing while was reading your post. This was so funny.
BTW, you're totally right.
Greethings dear brother.
Comment by Alec Holmes on 2013-04-10 00:56:28
Just out of interest, I'd like to point put that the July 15 Watchtower has been put up on jw.org, and it brings in it articles dealing with the new understanding of Matthew 24:45-47.
Alec
Comment by Meleti Vivlon on 2013-04-10 07:18:14
Thanks Alec. I downloaded a copy last night. Apollos and I have been working our way through it. There is so much there that I think we'll have to do a post on each article. I'm finding it somewhat distressing to deal with as so much is being stated as fact without any corroborating support from God's Word.
Comment by hezekiah1 on 2013-04-10 17:35:57
Thanks Meleti, I also agree there is a disproportionate interest in numbers. I look at our service reports for example. Why do I need to put in an auxiliary pioneer application to be approved by men? My service is to Jehovah, not to any person. I already have the command (and permission) to preach from Jesus. I do wonder though, if we did not have the hour requirement, or the recognition for having our name read out from the platform, I wonder how many would still pioneer? I have no doubt there would be some, but I suspect there would be fewer.
The other thing regarding field service numbers is that they can be used against you. Kind of like a ledger that is kept and used to measure your zeal for Jehovah. for example if you have many hours in field service, but don't have many placements then they may say that you are not productive etc. When I see it used in this way I find it disconcerting.